The SpaceX founder’s ambitious plans to colonize Mars take shape.
Within a dozen years, shuttle traffic can go to our neighboring planet.
SpaceX has just taken an important step towards manned space travel. The tests of the space capsule Crew Dragon went according to plan, and now CEO Elon Musk hopes for the first staff transport to the international space station ISS before the summer.
At the same time, Elon Musk took the opportunity to post his plans for a more extensive space program in a Twitter question this weekend. With the help of the new space shuttle Starship, he wants to quickly start shipping people to Mars over the next few decades.
The goal is for a Starship to manage three flights to orbit per day. With just over 1,000 flights per ship and year, ten Starships could transport over a million tonnes of material to orbit each year, Musk writes.
Starship design goal is 3 flights/day avg rate, so ~1000 flights/year at >100 tons/flight, so every 10 ships yield 1 megaton per year to orbit
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 17, 2020
In orbit, systems are needed to refuel the Starship ferries that will then aim at Mars.
In the long run, Elon Musk wants to see a fleet of up to 1,000 space ferries. He expects a construction rate of 100 per year, which would mean a full-size fleet sometime in the 2030s if everything goes according to plan.
Loading the Mars fleet into Earth orbit, then 1000 ships depart over ~30 days every 26 months. Battlestar Galactica …
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 17, 2020
The space shuttles will then depart in droves during the period when Mars and Earth are closest to each other. A window that occurs at a little over two years apart.
In total, such a fleet could ship 100,000 people from Earth to Mars every two years. If Elon Musk’s ambitious plans are unlocked, he hopes to have transported one million people to Mars around 2050.
“You can enjoy his final goals a lot, but that is a vision anyway. And there are huge technological advances that are on the way there. It would be great if we started an economy for asteroid mines and put the heavy industry into space and let the earth be living areas. Musk has done more for electric cars and the space industry in 20 years than the rest of the world in 40 years. – John”
\”We need more visionaries like Musk and Bezos! In the long run, man will not survive on earth. The fact that we are exploring and pushing the boundaries is part of our DNA. That we seek ourselves further into space is a natural consequence of being human. – Johan”
“Right from the start in 2002, the goal has been to make humanity multi-planetary. It is included in all job ads, everyone who works at SpaceX is part of the vision. SpaceX tries different solutions until they succeed “Failure is not an option” unlike NASA “Failure is not an option” they learn after all the failures and do better the next time other organizations dare not try. The most difficult and major obstacle has been the financing of the March vision. But that is probably resolved now with future income from the Starlink constellation. One of the most difficult components of the system is the “Full Flow Staged combustion” rocket engine Raptor. The motorcycle and to some extent the expansion cycle are suitable for reuse. In an FFSC, more or less no dynamic seals are needed, which greatly facilitates. SN 22 has just completed the current rate 5 per month target at least 1per day, the price today just under $ 1m per engine target $ 0.25m. What they have done in Boca Chica Texas and Cocoa Florida (closed down) (Roberts Road Florida is being prepared for construction of buildings) is to test different manufacturing methods, Elon wants the cheapest possible manufacturing to make the project financially feasible. This means that they try solutions that are cheaper than usual in the industry. So it’s no wonder that the pressure tests go a little bad. Mk1 extremely poor welding geometry thus high voltage concentrations burst maybe at 2 bar? But the latest test tank with better tolerances and geometry burst at 7.1 bar but still a little bit left to 8.5 bar to meet the safety factor 1.4 for manned flights. I think we will see Mars landings perhaps as early as 2022 by unmanned Starship and later colonization with Starship as well as major variations in the future. Will it be nice to stay on Mars, probably not the first 15-20 years anyway. O`Neal cylinders I think is a nicer solution but requires a huge infrastructure in space to be implemented. Colonization will take place on both planets/moons and O´Neal cylinders. With the space infrastructure now being built for Mars colonization, are we finally able to get enough Ir telescopes to search 100% of the sky vault instead of about 1%? like today. And then we have the capacity to change the trajectory of objects that can threaten cities or perhaps even life on Earth. The journey between Earth and Mars takes 3-5 months. -hg”
Simulation of first crewed flight of Falcon 9 / Dragon 2020
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 30, 2019
Originally posted 2020-01-22 11:30:49.